Divergent threat perceptions: The United States and Russia no longer understand each other’s views of nuclear war-fighting.If the United States and Russia fail to address these issues in future treaties, we open the door to a new arms race in these nuclear-adjacent arenas. Non-nuclear weapons now have indisputable implications for the strategic effectiveness of nuclear weapons. Effect of conventional technologies: Recent technological developments have blurred the line between nuclear and non-nuclear military capabilities.This, together with broader shifts in relative power, makes it more difficult for Russia and the United States to insulate the issue of nuclear arms control from both their domestic politics and the broader relationship between the two countries. End of strategic insulation of arms control: Public fears over the occurrence of nuclear conflict have declined since the Cold War.The existence of these allegations-and the fact that they were not resolved quickly-significantly undermines trust between the two countries over the issue of nuclear arms control. Allegations of noncompliance and mistrust: Both the United States and Russia claim the other is in violation of existing agreements.This raises the political costs associated with pursuing cooperation of any kind, including cooperation over arms control. Public opinion polls and elite discourse in both countries reflect this decline. Declining relations and negative public opinion: The general relationship between Russia and the United States deteriorated over recent years.In this report, we identify five challenges to cooperation. Recent developments in relations between the United States and Russia have made enhanced-or even continued-cooperation over nuclear arms control increasingly difficult.
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